Polish GO prices fall steeply in February and remain under downward pressure.

As we forecasted, Polish GO prices dropped sharply last month, as indictive price received on February 12, 2024 show. The 2023 GOs suffered the most, losing 63% of their value, while other vintages dropped by about 25%. This brought the 2023 Polish GOs to the same price level as the AIB EECS GOs.

A 97% windfall tax on spot transactions from mid-2023 to end-2023 had restricted the supply of Polish GOs and kept their prices steady until then. Meanwhile, the 2023 AIB GOs had fallen in price during that period.

Despite these significant fall in prices, Polish 2024 and future vintages still have a slight edge over AIB. This may still put some downward pressure on prices, but no major price changes are expected as the Polish GO prices reached similar levels to AIB EECs GOs.