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Week 48: prospect of gas burn set to weigh on EUAs, technicals suggest downside room

The EUA price will find some support from cold weather and the upcoming auction hiatus. On the other hand, the current fuel switching prices suggest some gas generation is in the money front-month, which is bearish for EUAs. Technicals and options also send a bearish signal, with some room to the downside before a support level at €67/t. Overall, we have a bearish view for next week.

Looking back The EUA price took another dive this week, losing €5.78 week-on-week (down 7.5%). Thursday’s settlement (30 Nov) at €70.81/t is the lowest since October 2022. The other key European energy indices are also seeing losses, with German power fro...

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