The table below shows the various sources of 2024 auction volumes:

The volumes to be auctioned for REPowerEU volumes to be added to the auction calendar is 86.7 million which is higher than our upfront expectations and is bearish. This means the commission is basing the volumes for the whole of 2024 on a €75/t price, not the average auction price over the last six months. If the volume was based on the average auction price for the last 6 months (€83.4/t), it would have been 78 Mt, so 8.7 Mt less than the 86.7 Mt in the communication. The note also says this volume is for the whole Jan-Dec 2024 period, which likely means the volumes will not be adjusted throughout the year to reflect the actual EUA auction price.

We did expect the Innovation Fund to be 40 million for 2024, but this has been adjusted lower offsetting some of bearish impact of the REPowerEU volumes.

The general allowances are including the 90 Mt rebasing, the new 4.3% Linear Reduction Factor (87.9 Mt) and the inclusion of maritime cap (78.4 Mt).

The publication of the auction calendar is scheduled for the week of 18 December 2023 and the start of the auctions expected to start 15 January 2024.

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To ‘provide market participants with sufficient advance notice’, the European Commission 

 of EU ETS Auction 2024 provisional after market close 16 November.