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ETS expansion to maritime will aggravate EUA scarcity

Including maritime emissions in the EU ETS will contribute to a supply glut in 2024, as the cap increase far outweighs the actual needs in a year of limited (40%) compliance obligation. In parallel, the REPowerEU sale will bring additional EUA volumes to the market. From 2026 onwards, as the market balance turns from surplus to scarcity, the scope expansion will exacerbate the tightening.

In this analysis, we investigate how the time lag between supply and demand side adjustments for maritime will affect the overall market balance, a question that has largely been overlooked so far.

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