Skip to main content


EUA price forecast for H2 of 2023: Anticipation of future shortage will continue to bolster prices

European carbon is proving resilient to the gloomy economic outlook and keeps trading around €85/t even as the share of coal in the power mix is shrinking, thereby reducing the need for EUAs. We attribute carbon’s strong performance mainly to a growing realisation that the revised EU ETS framework will significantly tighten supply. The upcoming REPowerEU sale of EUAs will somewhat offset this in the near term – by frontloading supply – but probably not enough to bring prices down. We anticipate an average price of €90/t for Q3 and €94/t for Q4 of 2023. The weather represents an upside risk in the case of extreme heat this summer and/or cold winter, either of which could spur more coal burn to power cooling and heating. Overall, we lift our H2 forecast from €86/t to €92/t.  

To read this article and explore our services, request a trial!

Our Platform gives you unfettered access to price benchmarking, analytics, new and insights covering the green certificates markets.

Request a trial now and someone from our team will be in touch with you to learn more about your involvement in the markets and to answer any questions you may have.

Loading form...

Benchmark for Guarantees of Origin (GO) prices and insights

A platform with real-time GO data and insights, reporting prices and market fundamentals for Wind, Hydro, Solar, Biomass, Biomethane and RGGOs.

EAC Market Report - In The Midst Of A Bullish Wave
Join our newsletter
Our community offers access to webinars, discussions and updates from industry leading experts and analysts.
Join our newsletter