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EUA short term price forecast: Q4 revised down on falling power emissions, for 2024 we see support from supply cut

We lower our short-term carbon price forecast in response to a sharp drop in power emissions, an expectation of limited coal burn throughout the rest of this year, and the prospect of additional EUA volumes coming to market through the REPowerEU sales. We believe the EUA price is still bolstered by general anticipation of the supply cuts that will take effect from January 2024. We now expect the EUA price to average €85/t in Q3, down €5 from our previous forecast in May. For Q4 we predict an average price of €88/t, assuming additional support from the expiry of the Dec-23 contract and the lack of auctions in the second half of December. We expect the price will continue to inch up and average €90/t in Q1 of 2024, supported by the implementation of the fit for 55 legislation and a return to coal-based electricity generation.

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