EU Hydro February 2023 - VWAP/Spread

The general movement of the prices was downwards for the month of February.  In November, a fluctuation of the prices succeeded a 7-month rally. The 2022 vintage monthly VWAP peaked at 773 Eurocents in November and since then fluctuated within the area of 675-775 Eurocents. In February, prices for all vintages dropped compared to January with the 2022 vintage sharply decreasing to 597 Eurocents (-22.8%) while the 2023 vintage decreased to 621 Eurocents (-10.5%) and the 2024 vintage decreased to 525 Eurocents (-9.3%).

In February, the total volume traded compared to January decreased by -13.35% (from 1,940 GWh to 1,681 GWh). This month, the structure of the traded volume changed with the 2023 vintage representing 38.1% (640 GWh) of the total, 2022 being 33.7% (566 GWh), and 2024 25.3% (425 GWh). 

Compared to last year, there was a 30.7% increase in the traded volume (from 1,286 GWh in February 2022), confirming the upward trend in the traded volume in the last few years.

EU Hydro February 2023 - Volumes

It is expected that the 2022 vintage will still hold an important share of the traded volume until the end of March when the disclosure period for 2022 is ending for most members of the AIB. 

AIB statistics are available until November 2022 (included) and are subject to adjustments.

EU Hydro - Jan - AIB Stats

Regarding issuances of EU Hydro GOs, 2022 seems to conclude to a quite lower level compared to the quantities of 2021 up to November (-18% at around 185 TWh ). The months of February and March along with the period June-October particularly contributed to this drop in 2022 while in November the issuance was higher than in 2021.

On cancellations, we had slightly more EU Hydro GOs canceled during these 11 months of 2022 compared to 2021: approximately 316 TWh against 310 TWh in 2021 (+2%). This narrow gap can be explained by the fact that companies do not wait for March to cancel most of their GOs (because of the disclosure deadlines): they still do cancel a lot in March (97.8 TWh in 2022, 108.8 in 2021), but also in the two first months of the year. In 2022, 62 TWh were canceled in January and February (combined) versus also 62 in 2021. The month of September was quite high in cancelations this year: 8 TWh versus 7.6 TWh in 2021. This figure might be slightly adjusted in the weeks/months to come, as well as the ones from October.

The conclusion that can be drawn from these figures for 2021 and 2022 is that there is a reduced supply of EU Hydro GOs for 2022 while the demand remains stable. For a more in-depth analysis of the supply side of GOs and hydrology, read our latest 

February 2023 Monthly Iberian Peninsula Hydro

February 2023 Monthly Central Western Europe Hydro

The reservoir level in Week 7 in Central Western Europe (France, Austria, Switzerland, Germany) was at 44.3% of its capacity, with the normal for the season level being 40.5%.

The reservoir level in Week 8 in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain, Portugal) stood at 56.9%, with the normal for the season level being 54.8%. 

There seems to be no clear and causal relationship between the European reservoir levels and the EU Hydro price.

After an all-time high of the price of the EU Hydro GO reached in mid-November, a downward trend was observed until mid-December. After that, prices started to increase again in January, and the market showed a lot of activity with traded quantities soaring and the volume-weighed average prices reaching those of November. At the moment, the price of EU Hydro hovers around 600 Eurocents and the upcoming disclosure deadline at the end of March in many member-states of the AIB is probable to maintain the high activity in the market.

Please note that we just released our Greenfact Fundamental GO Model. You can read more about it in 

Should you have any questions or remarks, feel free to reach out to me at 

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