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Trading activity registered with our data partners increased by around 5% in January when compared to January, with the number of registered volumes increasing by 10%.

As for trade activity for 2022 production GO, they accounted for a 45% share. The current vintage year (2023) is roughly stable in percentage of trades and volumes, ramping up at the same pace as other vintages. In the forward markets, the recorded share of forward-year production trades was 32% (+1% points compared to January activity). The main trading activities in February (+8% points compared to January) were for short-term buyer interests (2022-2024), compared to 87% in January.

There was no activity at all for the 2021 production, and only a few trades for 2026 and 2027 production.

Monthly comparison of different CY shares in trades and volumes

February 2023 CY trading share

In terms of CY traded, forward years' share was fairly stable, from 31 to 32%. This month, trading activity focused on CY-1 to CY+1, with no trades being passed for 2021 production.

February 2023 CY volume share

As for the volumes that were traded during February 2023, CY-1 (2022) shares saw a minor decrease: they reached 43% of the traded volumes, versus 48% last month. Regarding this year's vintage, the volumes traded increased from a 19% share of the volumes to 24%.

It is to note that the high share of volumes for the 2022 vintage (CY -1) is higher than what we witnessed in February 2022.

February 2023 GO market overview short

In February, prices had a general downward trend for all products and all vintages. After a brief recovery in January, the monthly average for Nordic Hydro 2022 went down by 15.4% while EU Hydro, Nordic Wind and EU Wind also decreased by 29.5%, 8%, and 16% respectively. A similar trend was observed for the 2023 vintage.

Nordic Hydro completed the month with an average of 600 Eurocents for the 2022 vintage and 651 for the 2023 vintage, marking a shift of the market activity focus toward the current year.

The most expensive GO of the month is Nordic Wind 2023 (701 Eurocents) and the cheapest is EU Hydro for 2022 (596 Eurocents).

February 2023 GO monthly prices (all tech)

February 2023 overview spread

The largest spread is now between 2023 and 2024 production years for the Nordic Wind product (-165 Eurocents) while in the same vintage of the other products the spread is at least 20% lower. 

It is important to note that the spreads for all products as regards the 22/23 vintage have all turned positive this month. Also, interesting observation is that the spread of the 25/26 for Nordic Hydro is also positive.

Technological premium/discount compared to Nordic Hydro

February 2023 overview tech discount

The spread between Nordic Hydro 2022 and EU Hydro 2022 production shrunk from a premium of 63 Eurocents to a small discount of -3.6 Eurocents bringing the products to almost price parity.

The Nordic Wind 2022 vintage, traded with a slight discount (-3.3 Eurocents) last month, trades with a sizeable premium of 49 Eurocents this month. EU Wind 2022 is also trading with a premium of 14.4 Eurocents

February 2023 Monthly Nordic Hydro

February 2023 Monthly Norway Hydro

The reservoir levels across the Nordics are steadily below the normal for the season levels with the value for week 6 being around 6.5% less than the normal levels. With the exception of only a short period during November when the reservoir levels reached normal for the season values, during the whole of 2022 the hydrological situation in the Nordics area was concerning.

Reservoir levels in the Iberian Peninsula and Central Western Europe areas have reservoir levels that are slightly above normal for the season (+4.8%). The hydrological situation in these areas started to improve only recently as during the whole of 2022, the reservoir levels remained significantly lower than the normal for the season levels reaching values as low as -35%.

The concerning situation in hydro reservoirs around Europe can be partially attributed to the drought that occurred in 2022.

February 2023 Monthly Iberian Peninsula Hydro

February 2023 Monthly Central Western Europe Hydro

In January, national GO auctions occurred in France, Hungary, and Portugal. The overview of historical auction prices for different countries is given below:

February 2023 Auction Overview

 held the 40th auction for Guarantees of Origin (GOs), with the book opening on 8 February 2022 and order matching on 15 February 2022 for October 2022 production GOs.

A total of 4 327 TWh of supported RES-E GOs were auctioned, an increase of 715 GWh (+20%) compared to the 

. Not all volumes were sold, only 97% of them (see table below). Wind GOs represented around 78% of the total auctioned volume (and all was sold), with a 37% increase in auctioned volumes compared to the previous auction. Hydro, Solar, and Thermal GOs auctioned volumes moved by +48%, -37%, and -4%, respectively. The amount of offered Solar GOs continues to decrease for the fourth month in a row, whilst the exact opposite trend is witnessed for Wind and Hydro GOs.

HUPX (Hungarian Power Exchange Ltd), the appointed operator for the Hungarian GOs market by MEKH (Hungarian Energy & Utilities Regulatory Agency), held its sixth pan-European auction for Guarantees of Origin (GOs) on 21 February 2023. This is the sixth such auction in history offering EECS GOs (produced from May 2022 to November 2022).

On 8 February 2023, the 14th Portuguese auction for Guarantees of Origin (GOs) was held by 

. In total, 4.03 TWh GOs were auctioned (+ 10%), all corresponding to the subsidized power plants for renewable electricity production under a direct price support regime. The net income from the auction (auction revenues deducted from overheads related to the acquisition of electricity from renewable energy sources) is reverted to consumers.

French Renewables Acceleration Bill adopted. 

The bill was adopted by the French National Assembly on 31 January and by the Parliament on 7 February 2023. 

 recognises the overriding public interest for renewable energy projects that will be defined separately by the upcoming government’s decree; gives greater power to the local authorities to define “acceleration zones”, designated areas where renewables development is fast-tracked; and limits permitting process to three months. Notably, for offshore wind turbines, operating permits will have to consider additional factors, including visual pollution. The most observable difference from the previous version of the bill is that both the Senate and the Assembly placed local authorities at the heart of the energy transition, by making them co-responsible for decisions regarding the location of the “acceleration zones”. While a step in the right direction, industry representatives lament that the bill fails to remove the obstacles necessary for the acceleration of renewables deployment. In terms of market impact, we foresee increased French GO issuance mid to long-term, as additional 90 GW solar, 40 GW offshore and 20 GW onshore wind will come online by 2050.

Renewable Energy Directive trilogue rescheduled as the Commission provides definition of renewable hydrogen. 

 by the rapporteur on the file, Markus Pieper,for lack of a definition as to what constitutes renewable hydrogen,since the trilogue was supposed to define the share of renewable energy in the transport sector, including hydrogen as part of renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBOs). Now that the Commission came up with a definition, the trilogue will take place on 6 March 2023 with topics for discussion covering items from the REPowerEU version of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED IV), including “go to areas”, the overriding public interest, RES targets in the transport sector and faster permitting times.

Leaked draft of “Green Claims” directive supports technology specific GOs. 

The leaked proposal of the “greenwashing” directive

 establishes criteria for environmental labels and voluntary environmental claims made in the EU by companies and for products made available on the internal EU/EEA market in business-to-consumer commercial practices. This does not apply to claims made by an electricity supplier that its electricity is sourced from renewables, using GOs; however it does apply to claims made regarding reduction of GHG emissions. Since the Directive aims to incentivise the use of the Environmental Footprint methods, where preference is given to supplier-specific data with a 100% tracking system in place, GOs meet these minimum criteria, making them an integrated part of the product and organisation environmental footprint (PEF and OEF) methods. This signals a bullish impact for the renewable and nuclear GOs, as the Directive seeks to require methodologies that take into account life-cycle assessments. The final proposal is expected by the end of March 2023.

Europe's weather conditions are showing signs of concern, as hydrological reservoir levels are losing ground in almost every region, though they are still above the levels observed in 2020 and 2021 in some regions. While production in certain regions like Central Western Europe and the Iberian Peninsula is low, other areas such as the Nordic region continue to experience high production. This variation in production is a result of a combination of continued dry conditions and low inflow levels, partly attributed to low snowmelt in some areas.

As March starts, electricity disclosure deadlines for most European markets loom, creating a strong demand for 2022 production GOs as market participants balance their consumption from the previous year.

Market sentiments remain mixed, but the prevailing view is more bullish on GO prices for 2022-2024 production, as there is increased interest in short-term portfolio balancing, partly due to the rise in renewable and GO supply in the market. We have seen during the previous days raising prices for 2022 and 2023 prices, both reaching respectively 7 and 8 EUR/MWh.

As the market moves deeper into March, it is expected that market activity will continue to grow, particularly for the 2022-2024 vintages, with attention shifting toward the 2025-2026 vintages later in the year. It is anticipated that GO prices across all technologies will remain close to the Nordic Hydro benchmark product.

Should you have remarks, suggestions and/or questions, do not hesitate to contact me at 

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Union database – March update to timelines

March 2023 HUPX Pan-European auction 

2nd Italian Auction in 2023 - All prices within the 6-7 EUR corridor

Week 11: KAU22 rises while reporting due date approaches

Week 11: RGGI V23 Future Dec-23 contract prices drop as low Q1 auction price is published 

GO Week 11 Overview - The 2022 vintage loses ground

Week 11: The benchmark contract remains about the USD 30.00/t threshold this week among regulatory updates and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank

Week 11: EUAs slip on financial market uncertainty, weak auctions

Week 11: VCM has the lowest volumes of future standardized contracts since the beginning of the year

EAC Market Report - In The Midst Of A Bullish Wave

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Trading activity (in amount of trades) increased by 5% in February.

All GO prices but Nordic Hydro 2026 decreased.

2022 production GOs still accounted for a large share of traded volumes (43%), followed by 2023 (24% of traded volumes).

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