By the end of November, prices had almost reached 10 EUR/MWh before dropping by 35% to around 6.5 EUR/MWh by the end of the year. In February, there were changes in the Volume Weighted Average Prices as follows: a decrease of 109 Eurocents/MWh (-15%) for the 2022 vintage, a decrease of 60 Eurocents/MWh (-8%) for the 2023 vintage, and a decrease of 60 Eurocents/MWh (-10%) for the 2024 vintage. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the month decreased by 8% from January to February.

There were thus changes in the spreads between different production years, with the 22/23 spread ending up at +50.95 Eurocents in February, due to a greater increase in the 2023 production. The 23/24 spread remained unchanged from January at -131.3 Eurocents. 

It should be noted that there are no comparisons available for the 2021 vintage, as it has not been traded from December until February.

Price Development Nordic Hydro 2023

In February, the volumes traded for Nordic Hydro were slightly lower compared to January. The most traded GO is Nordic Hydro 2022 followed by Nordic Hydro 2024. Also, the volumes traded were a much smaller portion than it was at the same time last year.

Nordic Hydro Volumes February 2023

(Available until the month of November 2022 (included) and are subject to adjustments)

The issuances of GOs have been significantly lower in 2022 compared to the previous years, with November 2022 issuances being 51% below November 2021. Data from the AIB shows lower issuances from April to September 2022, particularly in September when issuances were 20% below September 2021. This trend can be attributed to the below-normal hydro production in the Nordic region until November 2022. 

On the other hand, the cancellation of Nordic Hydro GOs in 2020,2021, and 2022 has been more or less the same. However, the 2022 production is slightly lower than the other vintages from April last year due to the disclosure deadline for cancelling GOs being set to the 31st of March in most AIB countries. It is also worth noting that there is more activity in the first and last months of the year. 

Also, note that the cumulative data for the vintages of the issuance does not include December to make it comparable with previous years, as data is only available until November 2022. 

Based on these figures, it can be concluded that there is a reduced supply of EU Hydro GOs for 2022, while demand remains stable. For a more in-depth analysis of the supply side of GOs and hydrology, read our latest report: 

AIB statistics 2023

During the month of February, the hydrological balance in the Nordic region remained below normal levels. The Nordic reservoir levels started the month around 51% of normal levels and dropped to 47% towards the end of the month. Similarly, the Norwegian reservoir levels began at 52% of normal levels at the start of the month and fell to 44% by the end of the month.  

Due to the drought all over Europe in 2022, the hydrological balances in Europe have been at a lower level than normal. Furthermore, the reservoir levels in the Nordics have experienced low inflows throughout the year. Moreover, they were drained significantly in the summer and autumn of 2021, contributing to unusually low levels. It has taken time for the reservoirs to recover, but in November 2022, the reservoir levels reached 80% of normal levels. Furthermore, as written in the GO End of Year Balance report, the energy market crisis connected to the war in Ukraine and high power prices resulted in regulatory measures to secure power supply for the winter period of 2022/2023. For instance, Norwegian hydropower producers were quasi-directed to conserve water in their reservoirs from May onwards – partially explaining the difference between hydrological balance and actual generation throughout 2022. Norwegian GO supply was further restricted by the new resource tax leading to some producers moving to re-hedge their production.

February 2023 Monthly Nordic Hydro

February 2023 Monthly Norway Hydro

The prices decreased in February, ending the month at respectively 671 Eurocents/MWh and 576 Eurocents/MWh (for the latest trades of the month) for 2022 and 2024 vintages, while the 2023 vintage ended the month at 741 Eurocents/MWh. As we end February, we expect market activity to continue to grow, particularly for the 2022-2024 vintages, and for attention to shift towards the 2025-2026 vintages later in the year. 

Please note that we just released our Greenfact Fundamental GO Model. You can read more about it in 

Should you have any questions or remarks, feel free to reach out to me at 

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