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W10 2023: price dashboard

According to the statistics from our data partners, this week saw a considerable decrease in trading volume, with a weekly growth rate of -39% (-42% last week) compared to the week prior.

Trading activity this week was considerably focused on 2022 and 2023 contracts, with respectively 33 and 36% of total volumes.

During Week 10, the prices of Nordic Hydro GOs increased for 2022 production, by close to 1 EUR/MWh. They closed this week at an average price of 786 Eurocents/MWh, which is close to the 2023 vintage level witnessed last week. No trades for 2023, 2024, and 2025 were recorded. Nonetheless, a few trades for the 2025 and 2026 vintages were seen, around 4-4.5 Euros/MWh.

As for Nordic Wind, its 2022 vintage also spiked, by 87 Eurocents/MWh (+13%).

Please bear in mind that the graph on the right displays the closing price for a given vintage and technology on the Thursday of the week. We here base our analysis on VWAP prices, taking volumes into account.

W10 2023: NH price

The past week, reservoir levels dropped from 41.6% to 38.9% following a normal-for-the-season downward trend but stayed below the normal-for-the-season levels by -4%. Weeks 11, 12, and 13 are forecasted with further divergence from the normal for the season levels to -10%. These figures, being below normal levels, show that the first months of 2023 were dry but when they are compared with the hydrological situation of 2022 when the drought had pushed the reservoir levels in this region to -14.8% below normal levels they can at least ensure that the critical situation that occurred in 2022 will not be repeated. Still, one could say Nordic reservoir levels are not in a stable position and thus concerns remain present amongst market participants we have been in touch with. The hydrological balance is forecasted to improve in the coming weeks with the value improving from -3.3 TWh in Week 10 to -2.4 TWh and -2.8 TWh in Weeks 11 and 12.

W10 2023: Hydro Reservoir Nordic

W10 2023: Hydro Reservoir Norway

In the EU market, the average weekly price for Unspecified GOs witnessed a slightly downward trend, with 2023 EU Unspecified GOs closing at around 751 Eurocents/MWh (slightly above its Nordic Hydro counterpart as of last week), decreasing by 16 Eurocents compared to last week's. Meanwhile, 2024 EU Hydro GOs closed at an average price of 610 Eurocents/MWh, the same as last week.

W10 2023: EU Hydro price

In the graph illustrating the Iberian reservoir levels, Week 10 ends at 56.5%, around normal for the season level. At the beginning of the year the reservoir levels were at quite high values but reduced precipitation has closed the gap and the forecast predicts that in Weeks 11, 12, and 13, reservoir levels will drop to -1.5% below normal levels for the season. The comparison of these figures with the situation in 2022 is encouraging for Iberia as reservoir levels one year ago were around 31% lower than the levels of today. The hydrological balance in this region is bound to improve slightly from -1.3 TWh in Week 10 to -0.2 TWh in Week 12.

W10 2023: Hydro Reservoir Iberian Peninsula

W10 2023: Hydro Reservoir Central Western Europe

The hydrological situation in Central Western Europe remains quite encouraging, with reservoir levels in Week 10 being forecasted at 36.1%, around 12.5% higher than the normal values for this season. The forecast up to Week 13 remains quite positive, with reservoir levels getting to +25% higher than the normal level for the season. The situation in this area during 2022 was less alarming as reservoir levels didn't go lower than their normal values but this year has even better values. Nonetheless, the hydrological balance is at -9.8 TWh for Week 10 and will decrease to -8,8 TWh and -8.5 TWh over Weeks 11 and 12.

As we move deeper through March, most European countries will have their electricity disclosure deadlines, and we expect to see a surge in market activity, particularly for short-term vintages from 2022 to 2024. This is already seen in the activity for 2022 as explained before in this overview, confirming the inclination of market participants for last-minute trades before 31 March.

Based on these factors, we still anticipate prices for Nordic and EU GOs to at least remain at current levels, with most trading still focusing on 2022-2024 production. We do not expect the 2022 vintage levels to go above the 8 EUR/mark, but rather stay in the 6-8 EUR/MWh corridor we forecasted at the beginning of 2023.


UK RGGO crop saw market makers increase their price expectations, bucking the recent flat trend with the mid-point price now sitting at 22 GBP/MWh, the spread still 50 p. Both Crop and Waste RGGO prices now sit above their EU uncertified counterparts.

The EU premium product (Certified Waste) saw price expectations decrease slightly, dropping 1% to 52.5 EUR/MWh with this market perhaps starting to feel the effects of the Landwarme v Commission decision.

Also worth keeping an eye on is the gas price, with the TTF index dropping below 50 EUR/MWh recently. If gas prices remain low, after a tumultuous two years which also saw GO prices rise sharply, It will be interesting to see whether gas consumers are willing to pay a hefty percentage premium to go green via GOs.


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