This week's focus seems to be on the current year and short-term forward year contracts, as in Week 21. Trading activity was slightly more focused on 2023 production products that had a 41% share of total volumes up by 7% points. This was followed by 2022 production volumes that accounted for a 27% share up from a 22% share last week. 2024 production vintages followed with a 14% share decreasing by 5% when compared to Week 21. Trades even further along the curve were witnessed with the 2025 vintage having a 9% share with the former increasing by 4% indicating a continued increase in interest in hedging forward year electricity consumption.


Meanwhile, the share of 2021 production contracts remained stable at 9%, possibly attributed to purchases from market players in countries with later disclosure deadlines.

Week 22 2022: price dashboard

Guarantees of Origin prices increased this week. The highest price increase was witnessed in the Nordic Hydro 2023 production vintage that closed the week at an average price of 216.61 Eurocents/MWh, up by almost 14 Eurocents when compared to the previous week. The Nordic Hydro 2021 production vintage followed with an almost 6 Eurocents increase, closing the week at an average price of 101.5 Eurocents/MWh. Meanwhile, prices for the Nordic Hydro 2022, 2024, and 2025 vintages increased more moderately, closing the week at 192.67, 220.3, and 229 Eurocents/MWh respectively.

Nordic (Norway, Sweden & Finland) hydrological reservoir levels given in the second slide show a notable increase of 7.5% in reservoir levels in Week 21 of 2022.

Week 22 2022: Nordic hydro balance and reservoir levels

Forecasted Nordic Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 23-24)

A higher than normal inflow is expected in the Nordic region in the coming Weeks 23 & 24, with levels forecasted to be 9% above the norm in Week 23 and 12% above in Week 24. Nordic hydro production is expected to slightly decrease in the coming two weeks, with production next week forecasted to be 4% below normal production levels in Week 23. Precipitation levels are expected to increase in Week 24 (a bit down in Week 23), with rainfall levels expected to be 11% above the norm and further contributing to the recovery of reservoir levels.

Iberian Peninsula (Spain & Portugal) hydrological reservoir levels given in the first slide show slightly lower reservoir levels in Week 21 with reservoir levels decreasing by 0.4% when compared to the week prior. In Central Western Europe, hydrological reservoir levels for Week 21 increased by 6.1% when compared to Week 20 levels.

Week 22 2022: EU Hydro

Forecasted EU Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 23-24)

Hydro production across the Iberian Peninsula (IB) increased this week by 0.4% when compared to the week prior, while in Central Western Europe (CWE), hydro production decreased by 7% possibly due to low precipitation in the past weeks (19 &20).

In the Iberian Peninsula, water reservoir levels are projected to decrease further, reaching 41.8% in Week 24, due to an expected decrease in inflows. By Week 24, inflows are projected to be 54% below the norm, and hydro production 30% below the norm as well.

Water reservoir levels in Central Western Europe are projected to increase further, reaching 53.7% in Week 24. Hydropower production is forecasted to remain steady (around 15% below the norm), due to constant high inflows and precipitation levels.

The most recent indicative prices as of 03 June 2022 show prices decreasing in the Polish GoO market when compared to the weeks prior and following the current price trends in the EU OTC markets.

Indicative prices for 2021 production for Biomass (Co-fired) Polish GOs were seen at levels of around 1.14 Euros/MWh with a 13 Eurocent decrease in prices and an almost 20 and 15 Eurocent/MWh premium to current generic AIB Biomass and Hydro GO prices. Meanwhile, current year 2022 Biomass Polish GOs were seen trading at levels of around 1.65 Euros/MWh trading at a 30 Eurocent discount to EU Biomass GO prices.

Furthermore, this week saw 2022 and 2023 Wind and Solar Polish GOs vintages remaining at stable levels when compared to last week with average levels of around 1.78 and 2.29 Euros/MWh.

The spreads for 2022 production have begun trading at a 21 Eurocent discount to the benchmark Nordic Hydro counterpart however further out on the curve 2023 Polish GO prices are currently trading at a slight premium of 9 Eurocents/MWh although this premium has decreased when compared to weeks prior. Even further along the curve, 2024 Polish Wind/PV GO prices were quoted at 2.97 Euros/MWh having decreased by around 7 Eurocents and trading at the highest vintage premium of 75 Eurocents/MWh to the Nordic Hydro product.

According to contacted market sources, Polish GO prices continue to follow developments in the AIB with prices slightly decreasing and this was especially so for 2021 and 2022 production GOs. However, there has been a rather stable outlook for front years with forward vintages still trading at a considerable premium to the EU OTC market. A contacted trader in the market mentioned that "

Overall it seems like the Polish GO market hit a plateauing a bit with a constantly decreasing value for the 2021 production GOs meanwhile we see current year (2022) and 2023 production prices remaining quite stable when compared to weeks prior

In the coming week, sources expect prices to remain stable and to continue following price movements in the OTC markets. Additionally, there might be a slight dip in activity with the bank holiday next week Monday.

Greenfact publishes indicative prices for Polish GOs weekly and for any information regarding the Polish GO market please contact 

The biomethane certificate markets have entered mid-year with positive sentiment, showing an upward trend in prices across the UK and continental markets. Among different certificate types, the certificates from Uncertified Waste have fetched the highest margin with prices increasing between 3% and 4% for the UK and EU markets, respectively. The bullish price of the UK RGGO Waste (20.63 GBP/MWh or 24.13 EUR/MWh) has currently narrowed down the premium between EU Uncertified Waste and RGGO Waste to below 3 EUR/MWh.

For access to the full Biomethane add-on please contact

The EUA-Dec22 contract continued its upward trajectory this week with prices being supported by the €83/t level at the start of the week before advancing to levels around €86/t mid-week. The benchmark contract drifted sideways in thin holiday trading during Monday’s and Tuesday’s (30 and 31 May) session before news on growing opposition amongst member states against the RePowerEU plan to use MSR volumes as financing element injected some bullishness as of Wednesday. A four-day pause in auctions supported the upwards direction with the EUA Dec-22 contract reaching intraday highs around €89/t on Thursday (2 June) before ending the session at €86.35/t, up 1.9% week-on-week. The market remains very quiet with thin liquidity and trades mostly from the compliance side. Next week will see EUA auction volumes increasing again to o 9.2m, from 5m this week. All eyes will be on the Parliament’s plenary vote on the EU ETS review file, scheduled for 8 June. It seems that the plenary could land on a compromise between the Commission’s original proposal and the ambitious ENVI committee position, adopted on 17 May. Reportedly, there is a majority for a 63% emission reduction target compared to 2005 levels with a softened, two-stage approach on re-basing the cap. Negotiations will continue until the vote which has the potential to move prices on Wednesday (8 June), especially if the Parliament fails to adopt an ambitious position preparing for trilogue negotiations with Council and Commission. We see the price floating in a €83 to €89/t range for next week, with volatility likely being high given the illiquid market environment amid key political decisions being taken.

Meanwhile, the wider energy complex shows a mixed picture with power prices continuing their upwards trend on increasing API2 coal contracts and the European Council agreement on banning imports of seaborne Russian oil. The German power Cal’23 ended Thursday’s session at €243.5/MWh, 5.3% higher compared to a week ago. The Dutch TTF gas front-month contract ended Thursday’s (02 June) session at €83.945/MWh, posting a 7.2% decrease week-on-week, following reports that Germany’s largest Russian gas importer Uniper made a first payment in rubles and higher flows from Norway and the North Stream 1 pipeline.

There has been a steady rise in forward year trading and balancing in the past three weeks and we continue to expect this in the coming weeks. As reservoir levels continue to recover in the Nordics and the rest of Europe, we can expect Hydro production to pick up and European wind production being also on the rise, this may have a downward effect on prices in some regions. This will largely depend on when producers sell their available volumes to the market.

Additionally, some market players report that buyer activity in some markets has remained fairly low post-March disclosure deadlines as some market players have been more focused on the physical commodities markets. As a result, market activity continues to decrease this week with fewer trades and traded volumes. However, should market activity continue to pick up next week, it will likely continue to support price levels.

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Prices for Nordic Hydro vintages increased this week with the highest price increase witnessed in the 2023 vintage.

Recorded transactions and volumes decreased by 41% and 36% with 2023 production GOs having again the largest share of recorded transactions this week as participants continued hedging forward year consumption.

The Nordic hydropower reservoir levels continue to recover, having increased by 7.5% in Week 21 of 2022.

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GO Week 22 Overview - Nordic Hydro on the rise, again!

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