This week's focus seems to be on the current year and short-term forward year contracts, as in Week 22. Trading activity was focused on 2023 production products that had a 41% share (same as Week 22) of total volumes. This was followed by 2022 production volumes that accounted for a 32% share up from a 27% share last week. 2024 production vintages followed with a 4% share decreasing by 10% points when compared to Week 22. Trades even further along the curve were witnessed with the 2025 vintage having a 9% share indicating a continued increase in interest in hedging forward year electricity consumption.

Meanwhile, the share of 2021 production contracts decreased to 4%.

Week 23 2022: price dashboard

Guarantees of Origin prices increased this week. The highest price increase was witnessed in the Nordic Hydro 2023 production vintage that closed the week at an average price of 226.45 Eurocents/MWh, up by almost 11 Eurocents when compared to the previous week. The Nordic Hydro 2021 production vintage followed with an almost 5 Eurocents increase, closing the week at an average price of 106.25 Eurocents/MWh. Meanwhile, prices for the Nordic Hydro 2022, and 2024 vintages increased more moderately, closing the week at 199.24, and 224.5 Eurocents/MWh respectively.

Nordic (Norway, Sweden & Finland) hydrological reservoir levels given in the second slide show a notable increase of 6.9% in reservoir levels in Week 22 of 2022.

Week 23 2022: Nordic hydro

Forecasted Nordic Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 24-25)

A higher than normal inflow is expected in the Nordic region in the coming Weeks 24 & 25, with levels forecasted to be 8% above the norm in Week 24 and 15% above in Week 25. Nordic hydro production is expected to slightly decrease in the coming two weeks, with production next week forecasted to be 11% below normal production levels in Week 24. Precipitation levels are expected to increase in Week 24, with rainfall levels expected to be 33% above the norm and further contributing to the recovery of reservoir levels.

Iberian Peninsula (Spain & Portugal) hydrological reservoir levels given in the first slide show slightly lower reservoir levels in Week 22 with reservoir levels decreasing by 0.4% when compared to the week prior. In Central Western Europe, at the time of writing this brief, levels for Week 22 weren't yet displayed. We will update this brief as soon as these levels are available.

Week 23 2022: EU Hydro

Forecasted EU Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 24-25)

Hydro production across the Iberian Peninsula (IB) decreased this week by 1.3% when compared to the week prior, while in Central Western Europe (CWE), hydro production decreased by 6.4% possibly due to low precipitation in Week 20.


In the Iberian Peninsula, water reservoir levels are projected to decrease further, reaching 41.5% in Week 25, due to an expected decrease in inflows. By Week 24, inflows are projected to be 71% below the norm, and hydro production 38% below the norm as well.

Water reservoir levels in Central Western Europe are projected to increase further, reaching 54.3% in Week 25. Hydropower production is forecasted to remain steady (around 20% below the norm), due to constant high inflows and precipitation levels.

This week saw a slight price increase in Spanish domestic 2022 GoO prices with GOs for unspecified renewable energy trading at an average price of 191 Eurocents/MWh having increased by 10 Eurocents/MWh when compared to weeks prior.

In the forward markets, GoO prices for Spanish domestic 2023 production for unspecified renewable energy (excluding biomass) also slightly increased trading at an average of 205 Eurocents/MWh up by 10 Eurocents when compared to Week 22. Furthermore, the Spanish domestic Wind 2023 vintage closed the week at around 195 Eurocents/MWh.

The spreads between domestic Spanish GO prices and the benchmark Nordic Hydro prices for 2022 production remains stable at 10 Eurocents. Market sources have mentioned that this continued wider spread compared to more narrower levels last month is due to a dip in market activity and domestic GoO purchases with more players focusing on exporting exportable volumes.

Furthermore, predictions on domestic 2022 prices for the coming week are predicted to remain between the 185-200 Eurocents/MWh range.

For more information related to the Spanish domestic GO market please contact 

The biomethane certificates from Waste, both RGGO Waste and European Certified Waste, continue the positive trend with prices increasing 2-3% from the previous week. While the mid-range price of UK RGGO Waste has risen for the sixth consecutive week, the EU Certified Waste has reached a new height, fetching the value at 35 EUR/MWh.

For access to the full Biomethane add-on please contact 

The EUA-Dec22 contract saw a significant correction on Monday (6 June) on reports that the European Parliament was still crafting details ahead of the EU ETS review vote scheduled for Tuesday (08 June). Focus was specifically on restrictions of market access for non-compliance players. During the first session of the week, the EUA Dec-22 contract lost 6.2% to close at €81.43/t. The downside move continued on Tuesday amid low liquidity. The session was impacted by a chaotic voting session in the Parliament’s plenary on the ETS review file. After voting on individual amendments a majority of Parliamentarians rejected the amended ETS file and instead agreed to send it back to the Environment committee (ENVI). The major stumbling block was the timeline for phasing in the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). With a very narrow majority, conservative and right-wing groups adopted a CBAM phase-in between 2028 to 2034, which is two years later than the original Commission proposal and was considered crossing a red line for the Socialdemocrats and the Greens. Meanwhile other amendments such as strengthening the market stability reserve (MSR) framework, the ban of non-compliance players from the market and the 2030 target were carried with more substantial majorities. In order for the file to attract the required majority in the Parliament’s plenary, the ENVI position needs to be more balanced to avoid a similar showdown. The re-crafted ENVI position will likely be less ambitious compared to what we have seen adopted by ENVI on 17 May but more ambitious in several aspects compared to the Commission proposal. We expect a high degree of price volatility ahead of the new Parliament vote as liquidity remains on the low end with many market participants not willing to take on sizeable positions given the uncertainty attached to the political process. ENVI coordinators will meet next week to agree on a compromise, with the Plenary scheduled to vote on the file again during its 22 June session. Meanwhile the Council will likely adopt a position on the file during the Environment Council meeting scheduled for 28 June. The EUA Dec-22 contract ended Thursday’s (09 June) session at €81.01/t, 6.2% lower week-on-week (-€5.33/t).

Meanwhile, the wider energy complex shows a mixed picture with power prices declining as a result of delayed nuclear outages in France. The German power Cal’23 ended Thursday’s session at €231.96/MWh, 4.7% lower compared to a week ago. The Dutch TTF gas front-month contract ended Thursday’s (09 June) session at €84.88/MWh, posting a small 1.1% increase week-on-week with European storage levels being slightly above seasonal average.

Over the past weeks, we have seen a steady rise in forward year trading and balancing in the past four weeks and we continue to expect this in the coming weeks. As reservoir levels continue to recover in the Nordics and the rest of Europe, we can expect Hydro production to pick up and European wind production being also on the rise, this may have a downward effect on prices in some regions. This will largely depend on when producers sell their available volumes to the market.

Additionally, some market players report that buyer activity in some markets has remained fairly low post-March disclosure deadlines as some market players have been more focused on the physical commodities markets. This is pretty much still the case. As a result, market activity continues to decrease this week with fewer trades and traded volumes. However, should market activity continue to pick up next week, it will likely continue to support price levels.

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Prices for Nordic Hydro vintages increased this week with the highest price increase witnessed in the 2023 vintage.

Recorded transactions and volumes decreased by 42% and 42% with 2023 production GOs having again the largest share of recorded transactions this week as participants continued hedging forward year consumption.

The Nordic hydropower reservoir levels continue to recover, having increased by 6.9% in Week 22 of 2022.

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GO Week 23 Overview - Nordic Hydro and Spain GOs rising

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