This week's focus seems to be on the current year and short-term forward year contracts, as in Week 25. Trading activity was focused on 2022 production products that had a 42% share of trades. This was followed by 2023 and 2024 production volumes that both had a 21% share. As we wrote last week, the activity picked up this week (26), mostly due to the very low level of activity last week because of the E-World event in Essen, Germany. We recorded twice as many transactions this week, compared to last week.


Week 26 2022: price dashboard

Guarantees of Origin prices mostly increased this week. The highest price increase was witnessed in the Nordic Hydro 2022 production vintage that closed the week at an average price of 197 Eurocents/MWh, up by more than 8 Eurocents when compared to the previous week. The Nordic Hydro 2024 production vintage followed with a more than modest 0.45Eurocents increase, closing the week at an average price of 235.75 Eurocents/MWh.

Nordic (Norway, Sweden & Finland) hydrological reservoir levels given in the second slide show a notable increase of 4.5% in reservoir levels in Week 25 of 2022.

Week 26 2022: Nordic hydro

A higher than normal (though decreasing) inflow is expected in the Nordic region in the coming Weeks 27 & 28, with levels forecasted to be 54% above the norm in Week 27 and 28% above in Week 28. Precipitation levels are expected to increase in Week 27, with rainfall levels expected to be 39% above the norm and further contributing to the recovery of reservoir levels. Nordic hydro production is expected to slightly decrease in the coming two weeks, with production next week forecasted to be 2% below normal production levels in Week 27, and 1% above normal in Week 28.


Iberian Peninsula (Spain & Portugal) hydrological reservoir levels given in the first slide show slightly lower reservoir levels in Week 25 with reservoir levels decreasing by 0.7% when compared to the week prior. In Central Western Europe, Week 25 reservoir levels increased by 1.7%, keeping the levels above median levels by 0.9% points.

Week 26 2022: EU Hydro

Forecasted EU Hydro production and inflow levels (Weeks 27-28)

Hydro production across the Iberian Peninsula (IB) decreased in week 25 by 14% points (as % of normal production) when compared to the week prior, while in Central Western Europe (CWE), hydro production slightly increased by 4% points, possibly due to high precipitation in Week 23.

In the Iberian Peninsula, water reservoir levels are projected to decrease further, reaching 39.4% in Week 28 (26.8% points down compared to median levels), due to an expected decrease in inflows and very low precipitation levels. By Week 28, inflows are projected to be 56% below the norm, and hydro production is 34% below the norm as well.

Water reservoir levels in Central Western Europe are projected to increase further, reaching 65.1% in Week 28. Hydropower production is forecasted to decrease by Week 28 (around 18% below the norm), due to low inflows and precipitation levels.

The biomethane certificate markets in Europe, both UK RGGO and European markets, have rebounded to positive sentiment after being stagnant for the last two weeks. Biomethane certificate prices of all types reported at our platform increase, except the price of RGGO Crop. In the UK market, the mid-range price of RGGO Waste stands at almost 21 GBP/MWh (24 EUR/MWh). For the continental market, the mid-range prices of certificates improve between 1.5% - 2%, leading to the certificate price of Certified Waste at 35.50 EUR/MWh.


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The EUA Dec-22 contract showed a bullish technical breakout this week, supported by higher gas and power prices as a reaction to ongoing supply concerns while sellers remain muted. The benchmark carbon contract opened the week on a bullish note, accounting for member state attempts to reduce gas generation shares by ramping up additional coal and lignite plants requiring additional forward hedges. The Dec-22 contract ended the session at €85.05/t on Monday (27 June). The market continued to go higher with traders awaiting the outcome of the EU ETS review position in Council. Member states agreed on Wednesday (29 June) on a general approach, finalizing the Council position and sending prices higher again to close that session at €88.35/t after briefly touching the €90/t level intraday. The benchmark contract ended Thursday’s session at €90.16/t on Thursday (30 June), up 7.17% week-on-week. With Council and Parliament now having landed on their respective positions, the next six to twelve months will see trilogue negotiations unfolding. While Parliamentarians came up with a very detailed set of changes, member states in Council rely mostly on the version originally proposed by the Commission. The key parameters to watch in this regard are the market access provision, the alignment with the REPowerEU package and the MSR framework. While the REPowerEU, as well as the MSR setting, will mostly have consequences for the latter half of phase 4 in terms of the respective supply available to the market, the market access provision adopted by Parliament has the potential to significantly alter the market functioning and decrease liquidity. Market participants will therefore watch this process closely. Should the ambition level of the Parliament position be watered down, or the market access restrictions remain included in a final deal, this could send EUA prices lower mid-term as a result. However, both the Commission as well as some member states in Council have voiced concerns about the limitation of market access and likelihood remains high that wording will be softened if not deleted. Meanwhile, Germany’s announcement to re-activate its power plant reserve including 10 GW coal, lignite and oil plants will cause extra emissions when displacing gas generation from the power mix and will act as a supportive price driver during the coming months. We see prices remaining volatile given the continuously low-liquid market environment until the ETS review process is finalized. In the short-term, the market will react especially to any significant developments on the macroeconomic side while carefully watching the energy policy space in light of Russian gas flows. That said, the darkening macroeconomic situation, as well as the resulting correction in global equity markets, seem to be like water off a duck’s back for EUA prices lately which held steadily around the €85/t level amid soaring energy prices. We expect continued support from the wider energy complex over the next days with EUAs likely making an attempt towards the €90/t level again given the low appetite for sellers to enter the market in the short-term.

UK considerations to block gas flows to continental Europe in case of stopping Russian gas supplies sent the energy complex northwards last week. The Dutch TTF gas front-month contract jumped to €144.514/MWh at the end of Thursday’s session (30 June), posting an 8.06% increase week-on-week. The German power Cal’23 followed sharply higher, ending Thursday’s session at €295.23/MWh, 13.58% higher week-on-week.

During this week, we have seen a steady rise in forward year trading and current year production combined with a pick-up in trading activity, after very low levels for the past four weeks. As reservoir levels continue to recover in the Nordics and the rest of Europe (excluding the Iberian Peninsula), we can still expect Hydro production to pick up, and with European wind production being also on the rise, this may have a downward effect on prices in some regions, that we already witnessed a bit during last week, for example. This will largely depend on when producers sell their available volumes to the market, which seems to be the case given the losses for the 2022 vintage.

Additionally, some market players report that buyer activity in some markets has remained fairly low post-March disclosure deadlines as some market players have been more focused on the physical commodities markets. This is still the case.

Should you have any remark, question, or inquiry regarding this Weekly Overview, feel free to get in touch at 

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Prices for Nordic Hydro for current and forward vintages increased this week with the highest price increase in the 2022 vintage.

Recorded transactions and volumes increased by 118% and 224% with 2022 production GOs having the largest share of recorded transactions this week.

The Nordic hydropower reservoir levels continue to recover, having increased by 4.5% in Week 25 of 2022.

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GO Week 26 Overview - After E-World, back on the market!

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