During Week 38, several vintages showcased pronounced price dynamics:

: A significant focal point this week, the EU Hydro for the 2023 vintage experienced a decline, with prices shifting from 542 EUR/MWh in Week 37 to 523 EUR/MWh in Week 38. This 3.5% drop correlates with the robust trading activity of the 2023 contract.

: Tracking along similar lines, the 2023 vintage for the EU Renewable Unspecified & Other segment registered a reduction. Prices pulled back from 545 EUR/MWh in Week 37 to 516 EUR/MWh in Week 38, signifying a 5.3% decrement.

: The EU Wind/Solar/Hydro 2023 vintage dropped notably from 552 EUR/MWh in Week 37 to 500 EUR/MWh in Week 38, marking a dramatic 9% downswing.

: Another product witnessing a slight ebb, the Nordic Hydro 2023 vintage prices slid from 534 EUR/MWh in Week 37 to 517 EUR/MWh in Week 38, denoting a marginal 3.2% dip.

: The 2024 vintage for this product echoed stability, with prices moving from 693 EUR/MWh in Week 37 to 700 EUR/MWh in Week 38.

: Ending the 2024 vintage on a higher note, the Nordic Hydro showcased a modest price appreciation from 696 EUR/MWh in Week 37 to 703 EUR/MWh in Week 38.

While other vintages and products also presented variations, the limelight predominantly remained on the 2023 and 2024 contracts. Both displaying pivotal price milestones, these segments reiterated the market's consistent interest, underpinned by significant trading volumes.

Please bear in mind that the graph on the right displays the closing price for a given vintage and technology on the Thursday of the week.

This week, market liquidity saw a notable decline, with traded volumes plummeting by 22%. Additionally, there was an 11% reduction in the overall number of transactions executed.

This week, the 2023 vintage has clearly stamped its authority in the GO market, snagging a substantial 50% of the market share (in the number of trades). Not to be left far behind, the 2024 vintage contributed an impressive 28%, followed closely by the 2025 vintage at 16%.

For the fourth consecutive week, Week 38's trading fervor was squarely centered around GO vintages spanning 2023 through 2026.

In the latest reservoir forecasts, Central Western Europe and the Iberian Peninsula are projected to see diminished levels for Weeks 37 and 38, diverging from prior predictions. Meanwhile, the Nordics offer a more consistent picture, albeit slightly below historical averages.

During Week 37 in the Nordics, reservoir levels ticked up modestly to 78.6% — a 0.3 percentage point increment from the previous week. Notably, this level lags the historical mean by 1.2 percentage points. Projections into Week 40 suggest a potential rebound, with levels anticipated to reach 83.6%.

Drilling down further, Norway's reservoirs tell a particularly interesting story. With a modest 0.1 percentage point increment in Week 37, levels reached 78.8%, still 1.5 points below the long-term average. Yet, the outlook for Week 40 appears brighter, forecasting levels of 84.2%, marking a significant 2.7 points above the usual trend.

Central Western Europe's reservoirs displayed a regression in Week 37, ending at 80.6%, albeit still 2.3 percentage points above the average. Week 40 predictions, in line with seasonal norms, suggest a slight decline, estimated to be around 81.3%, still commendably 5 points above the historical benchmark.

Conversely, reservoir levels on the Iberian Peninsula paint a challenging picture. At the end of Week 37, levels settled at 42.9%, a 0.4 point decrease from the previous week and a marked 2.6 points below the average. Projections for Week 40 paint a concerning trajectory, predicting a fall to approximately 26.7% — echoing levels seen in 2022 and markedly below-average benchmarks. Analysts attribute this decline to notably low inflows during Week 37, with Portugal feeling the effects more keenly than neighbouring Spain.

W38 2023: Hydro Reservoir Nordic

W38 2023: Hydro Reservoir Norway

W38 2023: Hydro Reservoir Central Western Europe

W38 2023: Hydro Reservoir Iberian Peninsula

In the wake of a subdued trading environment last week, prices for monitored vintages faltered, seeing 2023 and 2024 contracts breach the 6 and 7 EUR/MWh barriers, respectively. Yet, as several regions approach imminent disclosure deadlines, there's a prevailing sentiment of an uptick in demand. Such a shift could potentially stabilize, if not elevate, the present price levels.

The 2024 vintage is inching towards the 7 EUR/MWh support boundary. Notably, Nordic Hydro surpassed this threshold, marking a weekly closing rate of 7.03 EUR/MWh.

Analysts forecast that prices will likely hover within a certain band over the forthcoming fortnight. Specifically, we anticipate rates of 5 to 6 EUR/MWh for 2023 contracts, while 2024 contracts might range between 6.5 and 7.5 EUR/MWh.

Should you have any remark, question, or inquiry regarding this Weekly Overview, feel free to reach out to 

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