W8 2023: price dashboard

According to the statistics from our data partners, this week saw a considerable decrease in trading volume, with a weekly growth rate of -61% (-16% last week) compared to the week prior.

Trading activity this week was still largely focused on 2023 contracts, with around a 28% share of total volumes. But this week saw the smashing entrance of the 2024 vintage, which had been pretty much under the radar (though some transactions were passed): it represented 44% of the volumes traded this week.

During Week 8, the prices of Nordic Hydro GOs increased for all recorded vintages, with the highest price still witnessed for 2023 Nordic Hydro GOs, closing at around 681 Eurocents/MWh (+76 Eurocents on average compared to last week). The average weekly prices for 2024 and 2025 Nordic Hydro GOs were 519 and 408 Eurocents/MWh, respectively up by 56 and 33 Eurocents/MWh in comparison to the previous week.

Please bear in mind that the graph on the right displays the closing price for a given vintage and technology on the Thursday of the week. We here base our analysis on VWAP prices, taking volumes into account.

W8 2023: NH price

Despite the recent high precipitation levels (notably the past two weeks), the overall Nordic reservoir level remains roughly 2.5% points below its normal levels, reducing the gap compared to last week (3%). The current projections indicate that this deficit is expected to persist for the next four weeks, without much change in the gap between current and normal levels (still behind by around 2% points). For Weeks 9 and 10, the forecasted precipitation levels are predicted to be 29% and 21% below normal levels, with corresponding inflows at 72% and 67% compared to normal, partly explaining this continuous trend. We shall nonetheless bear in mind, as shown by the graphs below, that the current levels, despite being behind normal levels, are above 2022 levels (for the Nordic region as well as Norway only), which is reassuring. It is anticipated that hydro production will come closer to its historical average during Week 9, and this is likely to continue for the following weeks.

W8 2023: Hydro Reservoir Nordic

W8 2023: Hydro Reservoir Norway

In the EU market, the average weekly price for Unspecified GOs witnessed an upward trend amidst lower-than-normal hydro production this week, with 2023 EU Unspecified GOs closing at around 673 Eurocents/MWh, increasing by 84 Eurocents compared to last week, while trading at 8 Eurocents/MWh discount to its Nordic Hydro counterpart, decreasing compared to last week (-15). Meanwhile, 2022 EU Hydro GOs closed at an average price of 621 Eurocents/MWh, earning more than 60 Eurocents/MWh when compared to its last recording in Week 6. 

W8 2023: EU Hydro price

The opening slide shows that the hydro reservoir level in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) has remained above average since the start of 2023. This is forecasted to end by Week 10 (it was previously Week 9). There was a 0.6% drop in the reservoir level compared to Week 6, and it's expected to continue declining, in line with previous projections. Moreover, inflow levels in Week 7 have dropped below normal levels (by 42% points), with dramatically low precipitation energy during the past three weeks, as compared to normal expectations. But it's anticipated that the next three weeks will see an increase in precipitation energy, especially in Weeks 9 and 10.

W8 2023: Hydro Reservoir Iberian Peninsula

The hydro reservoir levels in Central Western Europe have also been consistently above their historical average levels, and this is still the case despite a 2.6% points loss in the reservoir levels for this region. However, in the next two weeks, due to the diminishing snow and groundwater levels, the hydro reservoir level is expected to continue to decrease and tighten its advance on normal levels. Week 9 is forecasted to have below-average precipitation energy by 86%, but hydrological inflow is estimated to stay around 70% of the normal level throughout Week 9 and beyond.

W8 2023: Hydro Reservoir Central Western Europe

As March progresses, with most European countries having their electricity disclosure deadlines, we anticipate a surge in market activity, particularly regarding short-term vintages from 2022 to 2024.

Last week, the decrease in GO offers had partly caused a spike in GO prices that had been experiencing some downs during the weeks prior. Some market sources suggest that lower GO prices across all vintage years and technologies could be anticipated in the weeks to come, mainly due to more sellers entering the market than usual.

Considering these factors, we expect a downward pressure on prices for Nordic and EU GOs this week, with most trading concentrated on 2022-2024 production. We do not yet expect 2023 production to come back to its beginning of the year levels, i.e 8 Euros/MWh.

Next week, on 1 March, we will release our first long-term forecast, covering issuances, cancellations, and prices up until 2040, for each AIB country. Make sure to get in touch should that be of interest to you and your company.


The market remained flat for all products, with no changes in quoted prices or spreads. In conjunction with the sluggish Week 7, signs suggest the market has peaked for now.

Progress in the EU on policy and red tape appears to be progressing slowly, and the lack of price movement may be reflecting general sentiment. A lowering of prices, particularly in the DK markets may encourage liquidity but these markets appear quiet for now.

For more information related to the Biomethane market please contact 

Should you have any remarks, questions, or inquiries regarding this Weekly Overview, feel free to reach out to 

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Prices for Nordic Hydro vintages increased by 0.7 Euro/MWh for 2023 production, while 2024 and 2025 production followed this price trend but with lower decreases.

Recorded transaction volume has decreased a lot this week.

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