Please note that we just released our Greenfact Fundamental GO Model. You can read more about it in 

W9 2023: price dashboard

According to the statistics from our data partners, this week saw a considerable decrease in trading volume, with a weekly growth rate of -42% (-61% last week) compared to the week prior.

Trading activity this week was still largely focused on 2023 contracts, with around a 39% share of total volumes (+11% points). This week witnessed a continuous rise in interest for the 2024 vintage. It accounted for 29% of the volumes traded this week.

During Week 9, the prices of Nordic Hydro GOs increased for all recorded vintages, with the highest price still being held by the 2023 Nordic Hydro GOs, closing at around 788 Eurocents/MWh (+106 Eurocents on average compared to last week). The average weekly prices for 2024 and 2025 Nordic Hydro GOs were 579 and 471 Eurocents/MWh, respectively up by 59 and 63 Eurocents/MWh in comparison to the previous week.

Even the 2022 vintage recorded a considerable increase this week, up by 63 Eurocents/MWh at 691 Eurocents/MWh.

Some trades for the 2023 approached closely the 9 EUR mark, signb of the tightness of the market at this very moment.

We are in the midst of highly increasing prices, towards levels we thought GOs would not come back to, at least at the beginning of 2023 despite the disclosure deadlines in March. It is indeed the third week in a row that Nordic GO prices increase, and they are now back to the beginning of-year levels.

Please bear in mind that the graph on the right displays the closing price for a given vintage and technology on the Thursday of the week. We here base our analysis on VWAP prices, taking volumes into account.

W9 2023: NH price

The past week, high precipitation continued in the Nordics area, closing the gap between the reservoir levels and their normal levels for the season, at least for now. Week 9 is bound to close at 1.6% below the normal levels and the forecast for the upcoming two weeks predicts a slightly lower level of convergence at -2.9% of the normal levels. These figures, although below normal levels are encouraging when they are compared with the hydrological situation one year ago when the drought had pushed the reservoir levels in this region to 13.6% below normal levels. Still, one could say Nordic reservoir levels are not in a stable position and thus concerns remain present amongst market participants we have been in touch with. The hydrological balance is forecasted to worsen in the coming weeks with the value deteriorating from -0.3 TWh in Week 9 to -2.4 TWh and -3.0 TWh in Weeks 10 and 11.

W9 2023: Hydro Reservoir Nordic

W9 2023: Hydro Reservoir Norway

In the EU market, the average weekly price for Unspecified GOs witnessed (again) an upward trend, with 2023 EU Unspecified GOs closing at around 791 Eurocents/MWh (slightly above its Nordic Hydro counterpart), increasing by 129 Eurocents compared to last week. Meanwhile, 2023 EU Hydro GOs closed at an average price of 836 Eurocents/MWh, close to its all-time record in Week 47 of 2022 (when it was recorded at 847 Eurocents/MWh (again, on average, some trades being above this mark). Thus, the 2023 EU Hydro gains almost 2 Euros this week, and this is undoubtedly its all-time highest week-on-week increase.

W9 2023: EU Hydro price

In the graph illustrating the Iberian reservoir levels, Week 9 ends at 56.2%, around +1.2% higher than normal for the season level. At the beginning of the month, reservoir levels reached significantly higher levels than the normal levels but reduced precipitation starting from Week 5 has led to a drop closer to normal levels. The comparison of these figures with the situation in 2022 is encouraging for Iberia as reservoir levels one year ago were around 45.2% lower than the levels of today. The forecast for the upcoming weeks is that precipitation will keep the reservoir levels to normal values for the season. The hydrological balance in this region, still, is at -2.4 TWh for Week 9 and will follow a downward trend in Weeks 10 and 11 to -1.7 TWh and -0.9 TWh respectively.

W9 2023: Hydro Reservoir Central Western Europe

The hydrological situation in Central Western Europe is encouraging,  with reservoir levels in Week 9 being at 39.3%, around 16% higher than the normal values for this season. The forecast until Week 12 is that the values will further improve, with reservoir levels getting to +34.2% higher than the normal level for the season. The situation in this area during 2022 was less alarming as reservoir levels didn't go lower than their normal values. Nonetheless, the hydrological balance is at -11.8 TWh for Week 9 and will decrease dramatically to -8,3 TWh and -6.5 TWh over Weeks 10 and 11.

As we move deeper through March, most European countries will have their electricity disclosure deadlines, and we expect to see a surge in market activity, particularly for short-term vintages from 2022 to 2024.

This week, the decrease in GO offers in certain areas as well as high concerns on hydro levels led to a spike in GO prices, which had been experiencing some downs in the previous weeks. Unfortunately, the hydro situation of most countries is not forecasted to come back to reassuring levels.

Based on these factors, we anticipate prices for Nordic and EU GOs to at least remain at current levels, with most trading still focusing on 2022-2024 production.


Both continental and UK markets continue to be sluggish, with low liquidity and little price movement.

However, biomethane is still attracting investment interest, with Macquarie Asset Management officially launching VORN Bioenergy on 28 February 2023, essentially comprising their earlier acquisition of the established bioenergy branch of German renewables company BayWa r.e. This follows on the heels of Goldman Sachs billion dollar announcement last month, as well as Shell's Nature Energy acquisition, finalised last week.


For more information related to the Biomethane market please contact 

Should you have any remarks, questions, or inquiries regarding this Weekly Overview, feel free to reach out to 

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Prices for Nordic Hydro vintages increased by more than 1 EUR/MWh for 2023 production (on average), while 2024 and 2025 production followed this price trend but with lower increases.

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