The following indicative bid/ask prices were noted on 9 March 2023:

03-23 PL Quota - P1

03-23 PL Quota - P2

Due to the considerable price growth of spot EU OTC GOs, the price spreads between Polish GOs and their EU counterparts widened from 0.2-0.6 EUR/MWh to 2-3 EUR/MWh. Moreover, aside from the strong demand for spot Polish GOs (2023 contracts), we also witnessed the increasing trends in hedging for near-term forward Polish GOs (2024 contracts), as the unbundled GOs are considered an acceptable option for Polish energy-intensive companies for 

For Biomass (co-fired) Polish GOs, current-year production (2023) was seen trading at around 4.71EUR/MWh (+10% compared to the previous month), a premium of around 0.7EUR/MWh in comparison to the corresponding Polish GOs for 2022 production (4.02EUR/MWh, -8% compared to the previous month). Compared to the previous month, the price spreads between Biomass Polish GOs and corresponding EU GOs widened to 2-2.5EUR/MWh.

For Wind and Solar Polish GOs, the prices for the 2022 vintage decreased from 5.16 to 4.13 EUR/MWh (-20%); followed by the price of 2023 contracts, which decreased 8.5%, trading at 4.82 EUR/MWh. The trading interest for forward GOs was focused on the near term, with the highest price witnessed by 2024 contracts among all vintages, at 4.92 EUR/MWh.

03-23 PL Quota - P3

Last month, we witnessed the price spreads between spot Polish Wind/Solar GOs and their EU counterparts decrease to within 1 EUR/MWh. However, due to the recent price increases in EU GOs, these price spreads were almost back to the levels in January. Notably, the forward Polish GOs (2025 and 2026 contracts) were still priced higher than their EU counterparts, especially 2026 contracts, with the price spread at 0.44 EUR/MWh.

03-23 PL Quota - P4

According to the statistics from TGE, as shown in the graph above, the market trading volume in March shows seasonal hiking in the past two years. Thus, we expect there will be more activities and liquidity in the Polish market during the near term.

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In contrast to the upward trend in the EU OTC market in the past month, the most recent indicative prices(in EUR) in the Polish GO market as of 9 March 2023 suggest a monthly decline of 1.4 to 20% for all types of GOs, except for 2023 Biomass Polish GOs (+10%).

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Mar-23 Polish GO Market Quotes: Expecting higher market liquidity

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