amended the Energy Law and certain other acts. 

The law includes a windfall tax which imposes a 97% tax on the sale price of GOs. According to the 

, the tax only applies to GO transfers (for transactions done within 2023), causing many market participants to delay their GO trades until 2024 to avoid the tax. This has resulted in a lower liquidity for GOs in the current market, as our market sources have reported. However, the Polish GO tax is nearing its end, as GO delivery in January 2024 is approaching. We estimate that other PL GO suppliers will soon start selling their unsold volumes, which could potentially push the for Polish GO 2023 vintage prices lower.

The bid-ask prices of Polish GOs for 2023 and 2024 production have plummeted, while the future production GOs have seen a slight decrease.

Notably, the 2023 GOs have experienced the most significant decline, with prices dropping by as much as 15% month-on-month. Following closely behind, the 2024 vintage has seen a decrease of 9% during the same period.

In contrast, prices for GOs in future production years, specifically for 2025, and 2026, have shown little fall. These prices have decreased by 0.9%, and 0.4%, respectively, when compared to their levels in October.

P1: Polish GOs VWAP - 112023

Polish GOs for 2023 production are trading at a premium of €0.69/MWh, down from €1.06/MWh in October, in contrast to the usual trend. This is likely due to the effect of a 97% windfall tax, which has limited the supply and kept the prices of Polish GOs relatively stable, while the prices of 2023 AIB GOs have fallen.

Conversely, forward production AIB GOs are still commanding a premium with premiums for 2024, 2025, and 2026 production AIB GOs now stand at €0.05/MWh, €0.33/MWh, and €0.49/MWh, respectively. However the premiums have fallen in comparison to October. 

The trading prices for Polish wind GOs for 2023 stood lower between €4.70/MWh- €4.90/MWh. The trading prices for Polish biomass/co-fired GOs trade typically €0.10/MWh below wind/PV prices.

P2: Polish GOs VWAP - 112023

P3: Polish GOs VWAP - 112023

The following graph shows how the monthly market activity and volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of GOs in Poland reported by TGE have changed over the last two years, with a one-month delay.

Polish GO market experienced a significant increase in trading activity in October 2023 with traded GO volumes increasing to 3.25TWh from 1.58TWh in September.  October also saw higher cancellation rates and higher prices than in previous month.

P4: Polish GOs VWAP - 112023

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A platform with real-time GO data and insights, reporting prices and market fundamentals for Wind, Hydro, Solar, Biomass, Biomethane and RGGOs. 

Our community offers access to webinars, discussions and updates from industry leading experts and analysts. 

The latest indicative prices as of 09 November 2023 show a sharp fall in Polish GOs prices for renewable energy produced in 2023 and 2024. The current year GOs suffered the most, losing 15% of their value, while the 2024 vintage GOs dropped by 9%. This narrowed the premium between the Polish 2023 GOs and the AIB average to 0.7 Euro/MWh. However, the forward vintages 2024 to 2026 production still trade at a discount of up 0.1 to 0.5 Euro/MWh compared to AIB peers.

Our Platform gives you unfettered access to price benchmarking, analytics, new and insights covering the green certificates markets. 

Request a demo now and someone from our team will be in touch with you to learn more about your involvement in the markets and to answer any questions you may have.

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Polish GOs Market Quotes Show Diverse Price Trends in November 2023

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