Price VCM W11

The CGO Dec-23 contract saw a 7.06% drop from last week's closing price of USD 0.85/t, settling at USD 0.79/t on Thursday (16 March). Similarly, the GEO Dec-23 contract fell 3.69% from the previous week, dropping to USD 2.35/t. The NGO Dec-23 contract experienced a week-on-week change of -3.35%, closing at USD 3.46/t on 09 March.

These minor price changes indicate that the market was moving towards price level stabilization. However, the contract volumes have dropped significantly compared to the previous week, reaching the lowest levels since the start of the year.

Only 6 CGO Dec-23 contracts were closed (Thu-Thu), a 97.38% drop from the previous week, while for the NGO Dec-23 and GEO Dec-23, 293 and 804 contracts were closed, respectively. This low traded volume indicates the players' position of waiting on the fence until more guidelines are published, especially with the ICVCMunveiling the long-awaitedCore Carbon Principles (CCP) and its Assessment Procedure during the upcoming European Climate Summit in Lisbon (30 March).

The VCM remained swamped. According to our analysis, Verra registered 1.9Mt credits since last Thursday, adding to the growing surplus of credits in the face of retirements shortage and closed contracts.

Bursa Malaysia Exchange (BCX) completed its first auction

 with 150,000t of VCS credits from a Cambodian REDD+ ID 1748 and a Chinese biogas ID 2402 recovery project. Other exchange platforms also rely on upcoming auctions, such as CBL and ICE to boost corporate demand.

Climate Impact X (CIX) platform is preparing to enter the standardized market 

with the debut of a nature-based spot contract.

After the REDD+ criticism, experts fear cookstoves might be in the spotlight next. Earlier this week, the University of California, Berkeley published a 

 analyzing seven cookstoves methodology, namely (1) GS-Firewood, (2) GS-Charcoal, (3) GSLPG, (4) CDM AMS-II-G-Firewood, (5) CDM-AMS-II-G-Charcoal, (6) CDM-AMS-I-E-Ethanol, and (7) GS-Metered-Pellets (Tier 4+). The paper covers 22 countries and 37% of cookstove credits. Nevertheless, it is important to highlight that it has not been peer-reviewed yet.

The voluntary carbon market is still under pressure, with low trade and a gloomy pricing forecast. The decreasing traded volume will build up surplus credits, which may lead to a tendency for prices to devalue so that there is an outflow.

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Week 11: VCM has the lowest volumes of future standardized contracts since the beginning of the year

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