Week 10: Appetite for €100, but wind and fuel-switch to keep lid on gains

The EUA front-Dec contract has seen strong performance lately and is flirting with the €100/t level and we could also see a test of the all-time high at €101.95/t. However, without large changes to the fundamental picture we don’t think a break will be sustained above this level. We see mixed signals this for the week ahead with fuel switching and more renewables possibly weighing on the market and worries of the French nuclear situation possibly providing support. The technical and policy signals are neutral and overall, we have a sideways view for the EUA Dec-23 contract.