Week 19: Lower auction volumes, TNAC numbers add support amidst ongoing economic uncertainty

For European carbon next week, we have a neutral outlook for most drivers. As Europe is in the shoulder season, weather and energy will take the backseat to technical and macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic sentiment remains uncertain in the face of a stagnant EU economic outlook, rising interest rates, and further risk as the US approaches the debt ceiling deadline. Public holidays next week will limit trading and auction volumes, adding support for carbon. Finally, the European Commission will publish TNAC numbers on Monday 15 May - likely to show the first invalidation of allowances which could lend some support to the market.