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Week 38: KAU23 sales volume expands and turns downward. Tug-of-war between buying and selling is expected to continue for the time being

This week, KAU23 started trading at KRW 12,100 on September 18 (Monday) and closed at KRW 12,900 on September 22 (Friday), up 17.3% (+1,900 won) from the previous week. After the announcement of the Phase 3 allocation plan change (draft) on 9/12 (Tuesday), the price of KAU23 continued to rise, recording the upper limit* for 6 consecutive trading days, but from 9/21 (Thursday), prices turned into a downward trend.

This week's KAU23 intraday trading volume was 157,268 tonnes, an increase of approximately 2.4 times compared to the previous week (65,475 tonnes), the total weekly buy order volume was 321,973 tonnes, and the total weekly sell order volume was 187,982 tonnes.

After 9/13 (Wed), the selling trend disappeared along with a rapid price rise, and the average daily trading volume was only around 10,000 tonnes. However, as the price rose to KRW 14,600 on 9/20 (Wed), a strong selling trend appeared and the mood reversed. It is analyzed that the price was adjusted downward as sales volume poured in, with KRW 15,000 acting as a resistance line. Price volatility is increasing as expectations for the easing of carryover/offset standards are reflected, and the tug-of-war between buying and selling is expected to continue for the time being.

Policy and Market Issues

Ministry of Environment announces plan to revitalize emissions trading market

(Background) The emissions trading system is a system that induces greenhouse gas reduction by setting an appropriate carbon price through market functions, and the role of a well-functioning trading market is important. Recently, the emissions market has a low trading volume, but the price volatility is high, making price predictability low for participating companies and acting as a factor in hindering carbon reduction investment

(Improvement plan) Reorganize into an open market and private-centered autonomous market to set a reasonable carbon price

w38 2023

The next report will be published on 13 October 2023.