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Will cheap nuclear GOs flood the market?

Although the role of nuclear energy is declining in Europe, France’s plans to issue nuclear GOs would flood the market with a large volume of cheap nuclear GOs, although EDF assesses the volume of nuclear GOs it would sell without dampening the prices. In an already oversupplied market, this could further suppress the price level of nuclear GOs, currently trading at around EUR 1/MWh.

Given that investments in nuclear energy can be considered sustainable under the EU Taxonomy, this opens the door for nuclear expansion, with countries such as France and Sweden already betting on nuclear energy. Nonetheless in absolute numbers, the overall nuclear capacity in Europe will decrease in the long run, potentially resulting in a net loss of 22 GW in nuclear generation by 2035.

The legislative driver would ultimately change the picture on the supply side of the market: while Switzerland issues and cancels nuclear GOs the most, France could overtake the Swiss, with the French decree introducing “optional” full disclosure for suppliers potentially coming in mid-2023. On the demand side, we expect growing demand for nuclear GOs in the long run on the back of the Green Claims Directive that steers the market towards procurement of energy with low life-cycle emissions.

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